Step 1 · Weighing the numbers
Since 1928 the market has closed higher on about 52% of trading days. Each factor below moves that starting point up or down. The point sizes are judgment calls kept deliberately small, because no single daily signal predicts the next day reliably.
| Factor | What the data says | Points |
|---|
Step 2 · Bull case
Step 3 · Bear case
Step 4 · Final prediction
Chance of a higher close
The point weights are judgment, not a backtested model. Not investment advice.
Track record
Each night's prediction is logged before the next session opens and scored after it closes. A call above 50% counts as "up," below 50% as "down." Showing S&P 500 calls.
| Session | Call | Result | Outcome |
|---|
After the 4:00 PM ET bell
Closebell turns each NYSE session into a short brief for the next one. It weighs prediction-market odds, trend, breadth and volatility into one outlook, and flags the scheduled events that could override it.
A guide for your own decisions. Closebell doesn't place trades or manage money.
Outlook model
The sliders start at the last session's real readings. Move them to see how each factor shifts the outlook. Event risk isn't scored; it's flagged separately because a Fed surprise can override everything else.
The 40/20/20/20 weights and the 45 and 60 cutoffs are a starting point. They haven't been backtested yet.
Ask Closebell
Get plain-English answers about the numbers, the prediction, and your own journal. Answers are written by AI from the latest brief.
AI-generated answers for information only, not investment advice. Questions are limited per visitor.
Trading journals
Each entry records the trade and whether you agreed with that night's outlook. Share entries to the feed, then compare your journal with another trader's.
Pricing
Free accounts are open now. Paid plans open after early access; join the waitlist to hear first.
Free
$0 / month
Monthly
$250 / month
Lifetime
$2,599 one time
Waitlist
Free accounts are open now. Paid plans open soon: join the list and you'll hear about them first, before anyone else can buy.
Data sources for this brief
Disclosure
Closebell provides general market information. It is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security, and it does not consider your personal situation. The outlook score and predictions come from a model that has not been backtested; a percentage says nothing certain about what the market will do.
Briefs and Ask Closebell answers are produced with the help of AI. Prediction-market prices reflect trader sentiment and can be wrong. Market data is gathered from the public sources listed above and may contain errors; check prices with your broker before acting.